Africa, the supernation

Meet the iAfricans

By 2050, Africa will be well on its way to becoming an economic superpower. With 40% of the world’s youth population living, working and spending their way to greatness, more than half of the continent will be under the age of 25. If Generation Alphas are called the iGeneration, the most tech-savvy young people the world has ever seen, can you imagine how forward-thinking the ‘artificial’ Generation Betas (born post-2025) will be? These two generations will be the wealthiest, most educated, and technologically literate demographics in history.

Of course, sceptics will be quick to say it won’t be like that for someone born in a Khartoum slum or on a tiny farm in Angola. But why not? Mobile phones are ubiquitous in Africa. Mobiles are the reason the African youth is a leapfrog population. They skipped landlines and computers and went straight to running their lives on mobile phones. Right now, there are more mobile phone users in Africa than in the US or Europe (approx. 650 million). More people have access to mobiles than to clean water, a bank account or electricity. In countries like Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, nine out of ten people own a phone (or several phones).

A mobile phone is a lifeline: bank, landline, email, social hangout, recruitor, entertainer, doctor, teacher, tutor. Africa is not mobile-first, it’s mobile-only. Through their cell phones, young people seamlessly connect with their neighbours and to the global economy. Boasting some of the highest grassroots adoption rates for crypto in the world, Africa is ripe for a crypto revolution. These mobile-native iAfricans will lead the way.

Growing up on the ‘children’s continent’, they’ll wear health trackers from birth and use AI diagnoses and treatments to live healthier lives. E-learning will be part of life. Interacting with voice assistants will be completely natural. Kids who can afford it will play with their smart, internet-connected toys and spend most of their time wearing virtual reality headsets. Youth culture will drive Africa. Young entrepreneurs and creatives will continue to break new ground, from Nigeria’s famous Nollywood to Kenya’s Silicon Savannah. The middle class will grow to 1.1 billion by 2060 and account for 42% of the predicted population of four billion. This means Africans living below the poverty line will be in the minority at 33%, according to the African Development Bank.

Money will change hands effortlessly across borders, without the need for bank accounts or even fiat currencies. Following the examples of Senegal, Tunisia and Nigeria, countries will roll out central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). In just a few decades, domestic CBDCs will come together to form Africa’s long-desired monetary union – designed by Africans, for Africans. It may be tied to a common blockchain, who knows? Africans may even decide to back their own cryptocurrency tied to its abundant food and green energy industries. Remember when Colonel Gaddafi wanted the African continent to switch to the gold dinar, diverting its oil revenues to funds controlled by the state rather than by American banks? The idea may seem extreme but when the power shifts, anything could be possible.

When the rest of the world goes down the path of isolationism, Africa's free trade area will become a global game-changer – a model of cross-border cooperation for shared prosperity. With 60% of the arable land left in the world, Africa will be the laboratory for testing new approaches to boosting food production. This will go hand-in-hand with a massive infusion of private money, technology and infrastructure. As investment floods to rural areas, local farmers will learn new skills and co-exist profitably with industrial farming. Through precision agriculture, Africa will not only learn to feed its own two or three billion people but will also supply many of the world’s food-scarce countries. Get it right, and Africa will rewrite the narrative, going from economic backwater to resource-rich superpower. Get it right and it will be the success story of the 21st century.

1.2 billion–person market on the cusp of stratospheric growth

Home to seven of the world’s fastest-growing economies, Africa is on the move. Consumer spend is already four trillion US dollars, having grown 5% a year for the last two decades. Africa has the people, the resources, and the sheer will to transform. How? Through eager adoption of digital currencies, a race to feed itself (and the world) and smart green energy, as well as through rapid urbanisation, rising incomes and a young, growing population. Soon, Africa will be the fastest-urbanising region in the world. With as many cities with over one million inhabitants as North America, more than 80% of its population growth over the next two decades will take place in cities. Currently, the per capita income of Africa’s cities is more than double the continental average, making them most attractive markets to investors. McKinsey predicts that, by 2030, Africa will have 17 cities with more than five million inhabitants.

When it kicked off the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in 2021, Africa not only created the world’s largest free-trade area since the founding of the World Trade Organization in 1995. It also laid the best ever foundation for economic growth, industrialisation and sustainable development in Africa. With 53 countries signed on, this single continental market for goods and services is well on its way to establishing a continental customs union. An investment, economic diversification, and job creation blueprint that will shape the future of Africa in the years to come, AfCFTA will alleviate poverty and improve economic gains for women.

There are many who feel that the AfCFTA can only fully reach its potential with a unified African currency. One money market could mean the free movement of people, capital, goods and services, accelerated industrialisation, and becoming better known for exports than imports. One giant leap towards fixing Africa’s fragmentation was the formal rollout of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) in 2021. This has been spearheaded by the continent’s trade finance institution, the Africa Export-Import bank (Afreximbank). PAPSS will eventually enable instant payments – in African currencies – between merchants on the continent, which will help meet its ultimate goal: reducing Africa’s dependency on currencies like the dollar and the euro.

But perhaps the eventual, unified currency will be crypto. After all, crypto is not bound by geography because it’s internet-based, with all transactions stored in the blockchain. Developing economies lead the world in crypto adoption and Africa is no different. It shows great promise because of its unique combination of economic and demographic trends. In sub-Saharan Africa alone, as much bitcoin is sent via peer-to-peer exchanges per month than is transferred in North America (more than $80m). Chainalysis estimated that Africa’s cryptocurrency market grew by 1200% between July 2020 and June 2021.

Africa’s young, fast-growing, mobile-using population thinks nothing of bypassing banks and trading money in unique ways. All you need is a cell phone signal (not even Internet) to send and receive money. In countries without an expansive banking infrastructure, mobile money apps like M-Pesa and MoMo help Africans meet their basic needs. Mobile money is so huge, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for half of live mobile money services and two-thirds of total transactions in the world. In Kenya in 2019, almost half of the country’s GDP was moved through mobile phones.

It’s all about the new money

If people are already used to transacting with mobile wallets, crypto is the next logical step. Kenya’s BitPesa was created with a vision to reduce the cost of money transfers between African currencies and reduce the reliance on legacy financial systems. Nigeria’s SureRemit is another blockchain company that wants to turn the remittances industry on its head. Users purchase vouchers to send to friends and family – instead of fiat, taxable currency – which can be redeemed for real-world goods and services.

When El Salvador made history by becoming the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender, experts were quick to predict that African countries will soon follow suit. If you lived in a country with double-digit inflation like Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Angola, Zambia and South Sudan, wouldn’t you also want to be part of the global financial system? Artist Akon has the right idea. He founded his own cryptocurrency, Akoin, and together with the Senegalese government, is behind the futuristic six-billion dollar Akon City. Besides being spectacularly Wakanda-esque, this smart city will be an interesting experiment to see whether digital currency can be better integrated into Africa as a whole. Everything from schools and universities to malls and property development will use the Akoin. Architect Hussein Bakri has created a magnificent vision for this multipurpose city – complete with a parking lot for flying cars.

Akon believes that crypto is the foundation for amazing ideas to manifest. “Crypto puts power back into the hands of the people by creating a transparent environment where trust can flourish. Decentralisation and cryptocurrency will allow for a new financial framework to develop on the continent, empowering entrepreneurs to build and execute their businesses digitally across borders.”

When Akon isn’t planning sprawling cities – one for Uganda is already in the pipeline – he is also bringing low-cost, sustainable electricity to Africa. Since 2014, the Akon Lighting Africa project has provided 25 African nations with solar-powered electricity via street lamps and solar panels. The project has a big goal: to provide solar-powered electricity to 250 million people by 2030. So don’t knock Akon City – Akon Lighting also seemed impossible at first.

It’s not just bitcoin and Akoin trying to get a foothold in Africa. The Afro was founded in 2018 but has struggled to become Africa’s bitcoin. South Africa’s Safcoin has had better luck, making history as Africa’s first proof-of-work coin; going global with a listing on HotBit. Safcoin has also launched MobiJobs – Africa’s first blockchain-powered micro-jobs platform, connecting businesses and gig economy workers across Africa, and Cryptovalley – an e-commerce platform allowing small businesses to sell and pay for products with crypto.

African blockchain companies are also doing incredible things. There’s Wala, bringing financial services to the unbanked. SunExchange is a marketplace that allows anyone in the world to invest in solar energy projects using bitcoin. Blockchain is also used for land registry services, such as Ghana’s Bitland, and agriculture – like Agrikore, offering a virtual marketplace for buyers and sellers. Free from legacy baggage, African blockchain tech is starting from scratch, bringing unique opportunities for a pan-African economy.

Africa’s greatest asset? Its people

Their ingenuity and spirit, for sure, but also the sheer number of them. The size of Africa’s working-age population is expected to surpass both India’s and China’s by 2034. By 2050, a quarter of the world’s population will live in Africa. So, when Asia’s working-age population declines, Africans – millions of them – will be ready to fill the gap. China will shift 100 million labour-intensive manufacturing jobs offshore by 2030. One can just hope that the lion’s share of that comes to Africa. China has deepened its links to the continent, investing heavily in industrialisation, infrastructure and agricultural innovation. The world leader in solar energy technology, China helped upgrade solar capacity in Africa from 739 megawatts to 5,500 MW over a decade. Wind energy installations during the same period jumped from just 108 MW to 6,100 MW.

Africa’s abundance of sunshine will remain one of its top strengths. It has seven of the ten sunniest countries on earth: Chad, Egypt, Kenya, Madagascar, Niger, South Africa and Sudan. South Africa is already one of the world’s top ten producers of solar power, and there are massive developments in Kenya, Rwanda, Ghana and Uganda. Morocco’s Noor Power Plant is the world’s largest concentrated solar power (CSP) plant that hopes to one day, supply Europe with power. So easy was it for Morocco to meet its electricity needs that it has already exceeded its 35% renewable energy target and has now set itself a new target of 52% by 2030. Imagine one day charging your smart home with power from Morocco.

These colossal plants are expensive to develop and maintain, but don’t think for a moment that solar power only comes in bulky, silicone panels. South Africa’s Helio100 could become the smallest, most cost-effective plug-and-play solar solution in the world. Using CSP technology, it uses a field of tracking mirrors (heliostats) and a small tower to capture concentrated sunlight. Just 100 heliostats of 2.2 square metres can generate 150 kilowatts of power in total – enough for ten households. Tanzania-born Zola Electric is another company offering affordable ways for African homes and businesses to get off the grid. It’s backed by the founders of SolarCity (now Tesla Energy).

The sun shines brightly on Africa

Perovskite solar cells are another much-hyped alternative to silicon. It promises to be less expensive and more efficient than silicon, and many companies are already taking their models to market. Very soon, these cells could reach the holy grail of 30% efficiency. Perovskites can be made to around 300 nanometres (much thinner than a human hair), which means a coating could one day be applied to anything from buildings and cars to clothing and cows.

Did we say cows? Saule Technologies in Warsaw has come up with an ink-jet printing process for manufacturing perovskite solar cells encased in a flexible plastic. One of its recent projects in Ukraine was to track two bison wearing telemetry collars powered by perovskite solar cells. The company also offers Internet-of-Things solar-powered price tags, solar blinds and e-mobility friendly car ports. It’s safe to say that in just a few decades, everything that moves will be solar-powered. We may well all hang solar sheets from our washing lines or make our dogs wear solar jackets to power our morning cappuccino. If this tech can reach the world’s sunniest continent, we’ll light up the world.

As green technologies are scaled in Europe, nations will increasingly reach out to Africa for more cost-effective green fuel. Green hydrogen, for example, plays a big role in Germany’s climate protection efforts. The government wants to partner with West Africa to jointly ramp up hydrogen production. It believes that with three-quarters of ​​West Africa’s land being suitable for wind turbines (and electricity production costs being half that of Germany), it could be a win-win collaboration. By using wind and solar energy, West Africa has the potential to generate up to 165,000 terawatt hours of green hydrogen per year – about 1,500 times Germany’s estimated hydrogen demand for 2030.

What is plan B with the water?

Green energy and the infrastructure that comes with it, will create millions of jobs. But how will all these mouths be fed? And what about the water? At some point, someone will point out that while Africa has enviably fertile lands, it’s also staring down the barrel of climate change. The weather is going to get hotter and hotter, and La Niña will continue to bring terrible droughts. The devastating droughts of southern Madagascar are just a taste of what will likely play out in Africa over the next decades. But even when rainfall dwindles, smart people find a way around it. Droughts in California have forced farmers to experiment with dry farming (no irrigation), while in Wyoming they’ve turned to planting the perennial wheatgrass Kernza. Deeply rooted, this cousin of wheat boasts improved yield, seed size and disease resistance – and it’s lower in gluten to boot.

Then, of course, if there isn’t fresh water, there’s always seawater. California start-up Agrisea has made it its business to come up with salt-tolerant crops to fight hunger. Identifying the genes in salt-tolerant organisms like mangroves, they are now growing rice in ocean farms in Vietnam – one of the most notoriously resource-intensive grains in the world. Besides giving water-scarce countries a solid plan B, this method of ocean water farming is incredibly exciting. To meet the demand for rice alone in 2050, it’s estimated that we’ll need land equivalent to the size of Chile. If this method can be perfected, anyone from any country can become a rice tycoon. As Agrisea’s CEO, Luke Young, predicts: “In 30 years’ time, it will be normal to see large floating crop islands off the coast of many countries, growing a variety of crops suitable for the marine environment.”

Our palates will change, and new food sources will appear on our plates. In Morocco, SuSeWi uses innovative technology to produce microalgae on land using only sun, sea and wind. It has the world’s largest algae growth pond, a 30 000 square metre production facility. If you’ve been following food trends, you’ll know that this green sludge is the future of food: rich in nutrients and able to revolutionise the world of nutrition, medicine and cosmetics. For now, our palates only know nori, wakame and spirulina, but in 2050, kelp burgers and algae pesto will be our staples.

The bottom line: if water is an issue, you must farm differently. You need to farm better. No drinking water? Let’s get the Southern Ice Project back on the table. This ambitious plan was hatched by salvage expert Nicholas Sloane to tow an iceberg from Antarctica to Cape Town, to combat an impending Day Zero. Back in 2018, after three years of severe drought, the city was at risk of becoming one of the first in the world to run out of municipal water. The icebergs are melting anyway, why not? The plan may seem extreme but it’s nothing new. In the 1800s, breweries in Chile towed small ones to use for refrigeration, while in the 1940s there were wild plans to transport an eight billion-ton iceberg to San Diego to assist with California droughts.

Africa: the breadbasket of the world?

It’s hard to imagine now that a continent with so much hunger can one day supply other continents with food. But the enormous, 70% increase in food production required will need to come from somewhere. Other continents simply won’t have the agricultural resources to deal with this challenge. According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), there will be a 21% increase in agricultural and fish production between 2020 and 2029 in sub-Saharan Africa. With the support of eager, local governments, the number of land deals has soared, and we’ve seen an unparalleled transfer of land ownership. Some will say this is simply a new form of neo-colonialism, but it certainly has the potential to increase food security, employment and income generation.

If Africa can move past its two biggest commodities – corruption and organised crime – it could have a bright future. The big difference with an African economic renaissance? Everyone’s in on the action – every income group and, eventually, every country from Zambia to Mali. Africa is doing pretty well trading with itself, thank you very much. McKinsey reports that two out of every three dollars in new African economic activity come from goods and services sold within Africa itself.

While Africa’s dream of a continental high-speed rail and road network is being realised, its tech ecosystem is powering trade like you can’t imagine. Best of all, this growth was actually accelerated by the Covid pandemic. There are no rules here; no competitors to speak of. This is sky’s-the-limit territory. It’s even somewhat under the radar. Says the Financial Times: “One sometimes-overlooked reason behind rapid growth is that there are virtually no legacy tech-enabled players already on the continent. In logistics, agriculture, medicine and B2B financing, there are no existing incumbents offering decent, first-generation technology platforms to compete with. Kobo ‘competes’ with agents often reached unreliably by phone only. Twiga ‘competes’ with stallholders having to make 4 am trips to wholesalers to buy the day’s produce. And mPharma ‘competes’ with an archaic distribution network prone to selling fake medicine at sky-high prices. The same reason these companies can scale so quickly is the same reason they are so important.”

With less than thirty years ahead to 2050, Africa is on the same growth path than China, Korea and India 20 or 30 years ago. But to think it will grow along the same trajectory would be a gross underestimation. Africa is ideally positioned to leapfrog centuries of industrial development and benefit from the achievements of the information age. In other words, expect nothing, expect everything. Watch this space.